In the Beginning...

When I was in college (around 1980) getting my BA in Philosophy, I was minoring in economic statistics, you know- ANOVA, multiple regression analysis, crap like that. In fact, while a junior, I tutored seniors. What made it interesting to me was it's application to gambling. Personally, I think there should be a math degree with a concentration in gambling (statistics and probability analysis).

Anyway, I developed two computer programs. The first was a blackjack program wherein you could input various strategies and it would play thousands of hands and generate the results. Remember, this is before PCs- we're talking punch cards and BASIC/FORTRAN.

The second was a harness racing program. I tested a large number of variables by running multiple regression analysis of past performances to today's speed. I was able to show that there are certain factors that are able to best predict how a horse will run today. I showed it to my economics prof and he gave me an A for the semester. He also had me speak to a philosophy prof who wrote some books on harness racing. That guy told me to develop it for other tracks (the work was done at the 2 Buffalo area tracks) and he would get it published. But I wasn't interested in getting published- I wanted to make money!

I used the method for one summer and did OK but I didn't have enough money to back it up, so I went and got a job (hey- what did I know? I was in my early 20s!) and put the method on the back burner. Every now and then, some friends and I would go to the track and I would amaze them by picking 2 or 3 horses each time, and they won almost all the time.

Fast forward to the present- I was looking for a new hobby, so I decided to dust off the Method and see what I could do. What changed was Internet Gambling- now I had a lot of information about other tracks, all without having to travel.

One of the limitations was the amount of money being bet at the Buffalo tracks (what's called the 'handle'). If I were to make a $200 bet, it would actually bring down the odds! That's how little was being bet locally. So I looked for another course that was a 1/2 mile design (like Buffalo) but had a bigger handle. I found it- Yonkers in NYC. So I started downloading the programs , making my picks, and keeping track for 3 months. I will post those results in the next segment.

On June 26, 2009, I invested $80 and started placing bets. I make spot bets, averaging 7 bets a week (five racing days). To start, I'm betting an exacta part wheel- my pick in first with the next 2 best horses- so that's $4 per race. I know that's small, but my hypothesis is that by reinvesting all winnings and increasing the bet size as a proportion of the bank, I will bootstrap my way to the level of bets I desire. If and when I reach a certain level, then I start taking profits. I hope to reach that point in 3-9 months. The bet size is increased every time the bank goes up by $40 ($120 bank=$3 bets, $400 bank=$10 bets, etc.). That gives me a 20 race cushion. 

Also, the bet size never decreases. So losses need to be offset by wins before increasing the bet size. This goes on until I either reach my goal level or the bank is $0.

The best part of the system is that there are no decisions to be made. All the steps are listed (actually, I've memorized them) so I don't have the problem of making poor decisions when I'm up or down. It seems like that's the weakest link in most gambling methods- you get nervous and make poor decisions when you've just lost 4 in a row, for instance.

I am going to test it over the next 6 months, so we'll see what happens.